Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Orioles KC @ BAL

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-58  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

45-51  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Noah Cameron 5-6 4.89 1.45 7.0 9
Kyle Bradish 5-9 3.61 1.40 6.2 5
5-6 W-L 5-9
4.89 ERA Ldr 3.61
1.45 WHIP Ldr 1.40
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 6.2
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
37%
📊
ORIOLES
63%
ROYALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

36.3%

Orioles Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
KANSAS CITY
5.2
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.711
170
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +37.0% more
Baltimore: 3.9 vs Kansas City: 2.8
Home Runs (Season) +17.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +24.6% more
Kansas City: 17.8 vs Baltimore: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.8 1
BAL Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.9 6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.6 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 7.7 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 17.8 19.0 / 2.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
KC
BAL
KC
ML
53% 83-73
55% 89-72
57% 90-69
56% 90-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 81-70-5
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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