PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
53-43 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
44-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 10-4 | 2.62 | 1.16 | 7.0 | 7 |
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 4.56 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
10-4
W-L
None-None
2.62 Ldr
ERA
4.56
1.16
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
TIGERS
37%
PHILLIES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
15.0%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.5
PHILADELPHIA
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
PHI @ DET
5 - 0
Jul 11, 2026
PHI @ DET
4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026
PHI @ DET
2 - 10
Aug 3, 2025
DET @ PHI
0 - 2
Aug 2, 2025
DET @ PHI
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Detroit: 40.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Home Runs (Season)
+5933.3% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+145.0% more
Detroit: 2.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.5
4
DET Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 6.1
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.2
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 10.0
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHI
DET
PHI
ML
54%
86-73
59%
97-67
54%
87-73
49%
80-84
ATS
64%
101-58
65%
107-57
57%
91-69
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
57%
88-67-9
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-76-9
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