SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
47-49 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
56-37 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 7-5 | 3.32 | 0.95 | 6.2 | 5 |
| Griffin Jax | 4-6 | 3.47 | 1.22 | 5.0 | 3 |
7-5
W-L
4-6
3.32 Ldr
ERA
3.47
0.95 Ldr
WHIP
1.22
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
37%
RAYS
63%
MARINERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
SEA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
2.8
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
4.2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TB @ SEA
4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
TB @ SEA
3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026
TB @ SEA
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026
SEA @ TB
8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
SEA @ TB
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.728
182
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.7% more
Tampa Bay: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+78.6% more
Tampa Bay: 18.5
vs
Seattle: 10.4
Hits (L5)
+63.5% more
Tampa Bay: 10.1
vs
Seattle: 6.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.7% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
2.8
1
TB Score
4.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.1 / 6.2
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.2
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.5 / 10.4
20.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.7
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-81
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
60%
98-64
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-10
53%
81-71-10
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