BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
45-48 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
40-56 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rivera
#99 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bo Bichette
#19 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rivera | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 3.2 | 3 |
| Bo Bichette | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
32%
METS
68%
RED SOX
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Mets
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
BOS @ NYM
3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
BOS @ NYM
4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026
BOS @ NYM
6 - 2
May 21, 2025
NYM @ BOS
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
NYM @ BOS
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.409
OPS
▲
.705
2
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10100.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+331.0% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
New York: 0.8
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+29.6%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
4
NYM Score
5.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.8
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 9.1
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 15.0
3.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.2
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BOS
NYM
BOS
ML
50%
79-80
50%
80-80
48%
76-83
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-67
49%
78-81
48%
79-84
TTL
55%
80-66-13
46%
72-83-5
51%
74-72-13
47%
74-83-6
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