Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Nationals NYY @ WSH

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

53-42  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jul 11 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

48-48  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cam Schlittler 9-5 2.05 0.93 6.2 6
Miles Mikolas 3-7 5.53 1.33 4.0 --
9-5 W-L 3-7
2.05 Ldr ERA 5.53
0.93 Ldr WHIP 1.33
6.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
68%
📊
NATIONALS
32%
YANKEES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NEW YORK
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Nationals Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 NYY @ WSH 4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Aug 27, 2025 WSH @ NYY 2 - 11
Aug 26, 2025 WSH @ NYY 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
1.041 ▲
OPS
.744
2
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +68.1% more
New York: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Strikeouts (L5) +31.7% more
New York: 11.0 vs Washington: 7.5
OPS (Season) +29.7%
New York: 1.0% vs Washington: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.0 4
WSH Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 10.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 2.4 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 11.0 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 18.8 13.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.5 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYY
WSH
NYY
ML
57% 92-69
47% 76-85
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
53% 86-76
TTL
50% 77-78-6
53% 81-73-7
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 16 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 26 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 30 minutes ago