MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
59-36 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
49-47 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Drohan | 4-2 | 3.09 | 1.24 | 6.1 | 6 |
| Bubba Chandler | 3-8 | 4.77 | 1.44 | 4.2 | 6 |
4-2
W-L
3-8
3.09 Ldr
ERA
4.77
1.24 Ldr
WHIP
1.44
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
59%
PIRATES
41%
BREWERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.5
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.743
▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.5
2
PIT Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 9.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.1
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 14.8
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.5
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52%
82-77
62%
101-61
52%
85-78
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
TTL
47%
72-81-6
40%
62-92-8
50%
79-78-6
50%
77-77-8
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