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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

39-57  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

39-55  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sam Hentges
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Hentges

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Gordon 0-2 6.44 1.59 5.0 1
Sam Hentges None-None 2.04 -- 1.1 3
0-2 W-L None-None
6.44 ERA Ldr 2.04
1.59 WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
33%
📊
GIANTS
67%
ROCKIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

30.9%

Giants Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
COLORADO
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
7
COLORADO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +37.3% more
San Francisco: 1.6 vs Colorado: 1.2
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
San Francisco: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +26.8% more
San Francisco: 15.7 vs Colorado: 12.4
Hits (L5) +23.9% more
San Francisco: 8.7 vs Colorado: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.2 4
SF Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.0 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.3 3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 12.4 15.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.6 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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