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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

54-39  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

49-44  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Chris Sale
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Sale

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Sale 9-6 2.20 1.12 3.0 5
Kyle Leahy 7-4 3.73 1.45 3.0 2
9-6 W-L 7-4
2.20 Ldr ERA 3.73
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.45
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
64%
📊
CARDINALS
36%
BRAVES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

64.6%

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ATLANTA
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Braves Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 ATL @ STL 4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026 ATL @ STL 1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026 STL @ ATL 11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026 STL @ ATL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757 ▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +51.4% more
Atlanta: 3.9 vs St. Louis: 1.9
Home Runs (L5) +34.2% more
Atlanta: 1.8 vs St. Louis: 1.2
Hits (L5) +34.2% more
Atlanta: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +33.4% more
Atlanta: 17.5 vs St. Louis: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 5.0 1
STL Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 9.6 5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 9.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 17.5 9.0 / 4.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.9 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53% 85-74
46% 77-90
52% 84-77
54% 90-78
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 96-71
53% 85-76
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 83-73-11
50% 76-75-10
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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