Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Twins LAA @ MIN

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

38-57  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

46-49  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grayson Rodriguez 2-2 7.55 1.83 5.1 --
Zebby Matthews 4-5 4.57 1.16 6.0 3
2-2 W-L 4-5
7.55 ERA Ldr 4.57
1.83 WHIP Ldr 1.16
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
41%
📊
TWINS
59%
ANGELS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Twins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
LOS ANGELES
5.2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ LAA 8 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIN @ LAA 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 MIN @ LAA 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2026 MIN @ LAA 4 - 5
Jul 12, 2026 LAA @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.679
OPS
▲ .720
154
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +12.9% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Walks (L5) +9.1% more
Minnesota: 3.5 vs Los Angeles: 3.2
OPS (Season) +4.1%
Minnesota: 72.0% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.2 4
MIN Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 10.0 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 11.5 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 14.7 16.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
LAA
MIN
LAA
ML
52% 84-78
59% 96-66
50% 80-81
55% 89-73
ATS
59% 95-67
60% 97-65
59% 95-66
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 83-74-5
53% 80-72-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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