HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
46-50 | Road
3
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
48-46 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cal Quantrill
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 1-0 | 3.57 | 1.36 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Cal Quantrill | 3-1 | 3.11 | 1.17 | 6.0 | 1 |
1-0
W-L
3-1
3.57
ERA
Ldr 3.11
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
63%
RANGERS
37%
ASTROS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.7%
TEX By 1-2 runs
14.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.8
HOUSTON
Texas
3.2
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.2% more
Houston: 3.2
vs
Texas: 2.5
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
Texas: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+62.5% more
Texas: 2.0
vs
Houston: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.8
3
TEX Score
3.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 8.7
7.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 13.2
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.2
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
91-72
61%
98-63
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-84-9
55%
81-66-14
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…