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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

47-48  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

55-37  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Cole Wilcox
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Wilcox

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Wilcox None-None 4.24 -- 1.0 --
Nick Martinez 7-2 2.65 1.13 5.1 1
None-None W-L 7-2
4.24 ERA Ldr 2.65
-- WHIP 1.13
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
63%
📊
RAYS
37%
MARINERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

64.6%

Rays Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
SEATTLE
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 TB @ SEA 4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 TB @ SEA 3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026 TB @ SEA 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026 SEA @ TB 8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 SEA @ TB 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.693
OPS
▲ .728
182 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +53.8% more
Seattle: 3.5 vs Tampa Bay: 1.6
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Seattle: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +7.1% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5) +24.4% more
Tampa Bay: 13.7 vs Seattle: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.5 2
TB Score 3.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.7 14.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.3 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 11.0 28.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.6 / 3.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
58% 95-68
50% 81-81
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-66
60% 98-64
55% 90-73
59% 95-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
56% 85-67-10
51% 78-75-10
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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