CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
49-46 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-43 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 7-5 | 2.73 | 1.08 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 10-4 | 3.99 | 1.25 | 7.0 | 8 |
7-5
W-L
10-4
2.73 Ldr
ERA
3.99
1.08 Ldr
WHIP
1.25
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
37%
MARLINS
63%
GUARDIANS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Miami
4.5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
CLE @ MIA
5 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
CLE @ MIA
4 - 1
Jul 10, 2026
CLE @ MIA
3 - 2
Aug 14, 2025
MIA @ CLE
4 - 9
Aug 13, 2025
MIA @ CLE
13 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.727
162
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+62.2% more
Miami: 11.2
vs
Cleveland: 6.9
Errors (L5)
+59.0% more
Miami: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+38.8% more
Miami: 20.0
vs
Cleveland: 14.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.0
3
MIA Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.2 / 6.9
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 9.8
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.0 / 14.4
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.0
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
59%
95-67
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
88-71-2
53%
82-73-5
43%
69-90-2
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