Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Reds CHC @ CIN

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

52-42  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

43-50  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shota Imanaga 5-7 4.17 1.10 5.0 5
Hunter Greene 0-1 6.97 3.30 7.0 12
5-7 W-L 0-1
4.17 Ldr ERA 6.97
1.10 Ldr WHIP 3.30
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 12
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
32%
📊
REDS
68%
CUBS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

30.9%

Reds Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
5.5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.374
OPS
▲ .699
0
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +97.0% more
Cincinnati: 11.8 vs Chicago: 6.0
Walks (L5) +37.6% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.5 0
CIN Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 8.6 13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.8 / 6.0 8.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 15.8 21.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
96%MONEY4%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55% 88-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 97-63-1
50% 80-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-72-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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