Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Mets BOS @ NYM

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

44-48  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 7:15 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

40-55  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sonny Gray 10-1 2.54 1.10 6.0 3
Nolan McLean 6-5 3.52 1.12 6.0 7
10-1 W-L 6-5
2.54 Ldr ERA 3.52
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.12
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
33%
📊
METS
67%
RED SOX --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 48%
Under 0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

Mets Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
BOSTON
4.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 BOS @ NYM 3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 BOS @ NYM 4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026 BOS @ NYM 6 - 2
May 21, 2025 NYM @ BOS 5 - 1
May 20, 2025 NYM @ BOS 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.409
OPS
▲ .705
2
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +331.0% more
New York: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs Boston: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +63.8% more
New York: 1.7 vs Boston: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.5 6
NYM Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.8 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.7 3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 12.6 14.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.8 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BOS
NYM
BOS
ML
50% 79-80
50% 80-80
48% 76-83
47% 76-87
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-67
49% 78-81
48% 79-84
TTL
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-5
51% 74-72-13
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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