Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Orioles KC @ BAL

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-57  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jul 10 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

44-51  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila 4-3 5.08 1.59 5.0 3
Brandon Young 7-2 3.42 1.36 7.0 5
4-3 W-L 7-2
5.08 ERA Ldr 3.42
1.59 WHIP Ldr 1.36
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
37%
📊
ORIOLES
63%
ROYALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

35.4%

Orioles Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.711
170
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Walks (L5) +14.8% more
Baltimore: 4.3 vs Kansas City: 3.7
Runs per Game (Season) +4.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Hits (L5) +31.3% more
Kansas City: 10.4 vs Baltimore: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 3
BAL Score 5.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 10.4 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.5 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 8.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 17.7 15.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
KC
BAL
KC
ML
53% 83-73
55% 89-72
57% 90-69
56% 90-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 81-70-5
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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