PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
52-43 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
44-50 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Flaherty
#9 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 3-6 | 5.75 | 1.46 | 5.0 | 8 |
| Jack Flaherty | 2-8 | 4.48 | 1.45 | 6.0 | 6 |
3-6
W-L
2-8
5.75
ERA
Ldr 4.48
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 1.45
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
37%
TIGERS
63%
PHILLIES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
PHI @ DET
5 - 0
Jul 11, 2026
PHI @ DET
4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026
PHI @ DET
2 - 10
Aug 3, 2025
DET @ PHI
0 - 2
Aug 2, 2025
DET @ PHI
7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5933.3% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+117.0% more
Detroit: 2.0
vs
Philadelphia: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Detroit: 0.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.8
2
DET Score
5.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.2
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 0.9
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.8
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 11.5
20.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PHI
DET
PHI
ML
54%
86-73
59%
97-67
54%
87-73
49%
80-84
ATS
64%
101-58
65%
107-57
57%
91-69
51%
83-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
57%
88-67-9
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-76-9
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