ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
46-47 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
46-47 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Canning
#17 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 6-8 | 5.38 | 1.56 | 7.0 | 6 |
| Griffin Canning | 1-6 | 6.47 | 1.61 | 4.2 | 5 |
6-8
W-L
1-6
5.38 Ldr
ERA
6.47
1.56 Ldr
WHIP
1.61
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
PADRES
63%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+42.2% more
San Diego: 2.8
vs
Arizona: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
San Diego: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.7
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
3
SD Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 8.1
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 6.4
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 12.7
6.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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