Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cardinals MIL @ STL

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

59-34  |  Road

8
FINAL
Thu, Jul 9 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

48-44  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Logan Henderson
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Henderson

#43 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Henderson 2-1 3.18 1.04 5.1 4
Andre Pallante 10-5 3.96 1.22 5.0 2
2-1 W-L 10-5
3.18 Ldr ERA 3.96
1.04 Ldr WHIP 1.22
5.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
63%
📊
CARDINALS
37%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 48%
Under 0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

65.5%

Cardinals Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

14.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
MILWAUKEE
3.2
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Brewers Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +63.6% more
Milwaukee: 3.8 vs St. Louis: 1.4
Hits (L5) +19.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.6 vs St. Louis: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5) +18.0% more
Milwaukee: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 6.7
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.8 8
STL Score 3.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 8.6 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 8.1 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 13.1 10.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.4 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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