PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
52-42 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
42-50 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 7-4 | 3.51 | 1.27 | 7.0 | 11 |
| Brady Singer | 3-8 | 4.72 | 1.54 | 7.1 | 5 |
7-4
W-L
3-8
3.51 Ldr
ERA
4.72
1.27 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.1
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
REDS
37%
PHILLIES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724
▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season)
+2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Home Runs (Season)
+7000.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
1
CIN Score
3.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.3
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 9.6
14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.2 / 14.3
3.0 / 6.0
Walks
5.2 / 4.9
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55%
88-71
59%
97-67
49%
79-81
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
80-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
57%
88-67-9
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-76-9
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