SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
47-47 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-42 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 4-2 | 2.18 | 0.66 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Janson Junk | 3-5 | 4.57 | 1.30 | 5.0 | 5 |
4-2
W-L
3-5
2.18 Ldr
ERA
4.57
0.66 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
59%
MARLINS
41%
MARINERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Miami
3
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
SEA @ MIA
4 - 8
Jul 8, 2026
SEA @ MIA
0 - 2
Jul 7, 2026
SEA @ MIA
5 - 6
Apr 27, 2025
MIA @ SEA
6 - 7
Apr 26, 2025
MIA @ SEA
0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.693
OPS
▲
.727
182
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7.7% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5)
+137.0% more
Miami: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+103.8% more
Miami: 20.5
vs
Seattle: 10.0
Hits (L5)
+63.1% more
Miami: 10.8
vs
Seattle: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.0
4
MIA Score
3.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.8 / 6.6
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.9
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.5 / 10.0
19.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.3
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SEA
MIA
SEA
ML
48%
78-84
50%
81-81
55%
88-72
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
98-64
54%
86-74
59%
95-67
TTL
56%
88-69-5
56%
85-67-10
53%
82-73-5
53%
81-71-10
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