CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
52-41 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
43-51 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Peterson
#19 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 4-7 | 6.45 | 1.67 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Trevor Rogers | 6-7 | 4.48 | 1.32 | 6.0 | 4 |
4-7
W-L
6-7
6.45
ERA
Ldr 4.48
1.67
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
32%
ORIOLES
68%
CUBS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
16%
Under 0
84%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
7.8%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Baltimore
5.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (-1)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Orioles (-1)
Push
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
CHC @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 8, 2026
CHC @ BAL
9 - 7
Jul 7, 2026
CHC @ BAL
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
BAL @ CHC
3 - 5
Aug 2, 2025
BAL @ CHC
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.374
OPS
▲
.711
0
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19900.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+396.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+33.7%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+25.1%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.5
2
BAL Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 8.5
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.5
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 16.2
7.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.5
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHC
BAL
CHC
ML
53%
83-73
58%
93-68
57%
90-69
51%
82-79
ATS
61%
95-60-1
61%
97-63-1
57%
90-68-1
47%
75-85-1
TTL
54%
81-70-5
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-6
46%
72-83-6
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