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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

43-48  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jul 9 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

47-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Grant Taylor
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Taylor

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 2.28 -- 1.0 --
Grant Taylor None-None 2.89 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.28 Ldr ERA 2.89
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
58%
📊
WHITE SOX
42%
RED SOX --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

White Sox Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BOSTON
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 CHW @ BOS 11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026 CHW @ BOS 0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 CHW @ BOS 2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026 BOS @ CHW 2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026 BOS @ CHW 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.409
OPS
▲ .826
2 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +40.3% more
Boston: 15.3 vs Chicago: 9.2
Hits (L5) +37.8% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Chicago: 6.0
Walks (L5) +34.2% more
Boston: 3.7 vs Chicago: 2.4
Home Runs (L5) +29.6% more
Boston: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.0 2
CHW Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 9.7 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 10.0 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 15.3 7.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BOS
CHW
BOS
ML
49% 81-86
50% 80-80
56% 94-73
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-67
56% 93-74
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 96-69-2
46% 72-83-5
51% 84-81-2
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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