CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
48-46 | Road
5
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
46-48 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 9-4 | 3.81 | 1.18 | 7.0 | 11 |
| Bailey Ober | 6-3 | 4.40 | 1.22 | 5.0 | 5 |
9-4
W-L
6-3
3.81 Ldr
ERA
4.40
1.18 Ldr
WHIP
1.22
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
63%
TWINS
37%
GUARDIANS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Minnesota
3.8
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+38.8% more
Cleveland: 1.5
vs
Minnesota: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.0% more
Cleveland: 10.2
vs
Minnesota: 8.3
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6
vs
Minnesota: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+38.6% more
Minnesota: 10.2
vs
Cleveland: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
5
MIN Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 7.4
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.2
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 12.6
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.7 / 4.0
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CLE
MIN
CLE
ML
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
50%
80-81
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-68
59%
95-66
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
55%
88-71-2
53%
80-72-9
43%
69-90-2
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