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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

51-42  |  Road

12
FINAL
Thu, Jul 9 • 1:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

54-37  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Blackburn 2-1 2.31 1.14 2.0 3
Drew Rasmussen 7-4 3.26 0.90 2.1 2
2-1 W-L 7-4
2.31 Ldr ERA 3.26
1.14 WHIP Ldr 0.90
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
41%
📊
RAYS
59%
YANKEES --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
4.8
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Tampa Bay TB
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041 ▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5 vs New York: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +15.7% more
Tampa Bay: 11.6 vs New York: 10.0
Home Runs (L5) +13.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1 vs New York: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.8 12
TB Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.5 10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 13.0 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 10.0 18.0 / 27.0
Walks 1.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58% 95-68
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 95-66
55% 90-73
53% 86-76
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-75-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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