KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
38-56 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
40-54 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Wacha
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 5-6 | 3.77 | 1.16 | 4.2 | 5 |
| Sean Manaea | 1-4 | 4.56 | 1.37 | 7.0 | 6 |
5-6
W-L
1-4
3.77 Ldr
ERA
4.56
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
4.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
METS
59%
ROYALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.5
KANSAS CITY
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
KC @ NYM
3 - 7
Jul 8, 2026
KC @ NYM
2 - 6
Jul 7, 2026
KC @ NYM
16 - 12
Jul 13, 2025
NYM @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 12, 2025
NYM @ KC
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.718
▲
OPS
.705
170
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+31.7% more
New York: 1.6
vs
Kansas City: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+20.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+15.7% more
Kansas City: 19.6
vs
New York: 16.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.5
3
NYM Score
5.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.4 / 12.1
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 19.6
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.5 / 5.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
KC
NYM
KC
ML
50%
79-80
55%
89-72
48%
76-83
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
80-66-13
58%
90-64-7
51%
74-72-13
54%
83-70-7
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