ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
54-38 | Road
10
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
47-47 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 5-6 | 4.12 | 1.23 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Mitch Keller | 6-6 | 5.14 | 1.31 | 3.0 | 3 |
5-6
W-L
6-6
4.12 Ldr
ERA
5.14
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
63%
PIRATES
37%
BRAVES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.5
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757
▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Atlanta: 0.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.5% more
Atlanta: 9.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.9%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.5
10
PIT Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.6
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 15.3
19.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.1 / 1.9
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52%
82-77
46%
77-90
52%
85-78
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
81-82
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
79-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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