ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
45-47 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
46-46 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Cabrera
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Cabrera | 0-1 | 5.60 | 1.58 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Michael King | 5-7 | 3.41 | 1.16 | 6.0 | 4 |
0-1
W-L
5-7
5.60
ERA
Ldr 3.41
1.58
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
PADRES
63%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ARI By 1-2 runs
14.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
8.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.2
ARIZONA
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+64.1% more
San Diego: 3.3
vs
Arizona: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.6% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
San Diego: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.2
4
SD Score
4.8
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.1
13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.7
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 11.5
20.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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