Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cardinals MIL @ STL

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

58-34  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jul 8 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

48-43  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Harrison
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Harrison

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael McGreevy
STARTING PITCHER

Michael McGreevy

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Harrison 8-1 3.01 1.08 4.0 2
Michael McGreevy 3-7 3.01 1.11 6.1 6
8-1 W-L 3-7
3.01 ERA 3.01
1.08 Ldr WHIP 1.11
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
63%
📊
CARDINALS
37%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

65.5%

Cardinals Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

14.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
MILWAUKEE
3.2
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +55.8% more
Milwaukee: 4.6 vs St. Louis: 2.1
Total Bases (L5) +29.1% more
Milwaukee: 15.2 vs St. Louis: 10.8
Hits (L5) +26.7% more
Milwaukee: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Strikeouts (L5) +15.5% more
Milwaukee: 7.7 vs St. Louis: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.8 1
STL Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.5 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.7 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 15.2 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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