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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

51-42  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Jul 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

42-49  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Alan Rangel
STARTING PITCHER

Alan Rangel

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alan Rangel 0-1 4.19 1.31 3.1 5
Chase Burns 10-1 2.54 1.08 5.0 2
0-1 W-L 10-1
4.19 ERA Ldr 2.54
1.31 WHIP Ldr 1.08
3.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
📊
REDS
37%
PHILLIES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

36.3%

Reds Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
3.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim Phillies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 PHI @ CIN 1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026 PHI @ CIN 5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026 PHI @ CIN 4 - 1
May 20, 2026 CIN @ PHI 9 - 4
May 19, 2026 CIN @ PHI 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724 ▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +22.5% more
Philadelphia: 8.4 vs Cincinnati: 6.5
Total Bases (L5) +20.3% more
Philadelphia: 12.9 vs Cincinnati: 10.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season) +2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.2 5
CIN Score 3.8 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.4 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 5.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 10.9 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 12.9 31.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.4 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55% 88-71
59% 97-67
49% 79-81
49% 80-84
ATS
54% 86-73
65% 107-57
50% 80-80
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-72-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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