HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
46-49 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
48-46 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | None-None | 10.22 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 3.29 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.22
ERA
Ldr 3.29
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
38%
NATIONALS
62%
ASTROS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.8
HOUSTON
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 8, 2026
HOU @ WSH
2 - 8
Jul 7, 2026
HOU @ WSH
6 - 3
Jul 6, 2026
HOU @ WSH
11 - 12
Jul 30, 2025
WSH @ HOU
1 - 9
Jul 29, 2025
WSH @ HOU
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.582
OPS
▲
.744
4
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5150.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+69.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+37.2% more
Washington: 10.8
vs
Houston: 7.9
Total Bases (L5)
+35.3% more
Washington: 19.3
vs
Houston: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.8
2
WSH Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 7.9
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 8.1
3.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
19.3 / 14.3
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.7
10.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
HOU
WSH
HOU
ML
57%
92-69
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
45%
70-84-9
42%
65-90-6
45%
69-86-9
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