ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
53-38 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
47-46 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | 5-4 | 3.61 | 1.35 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Jared Jones | 1-1 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 6.0 | 8 |
5-4
W-L
1-1
3.61 Ldr
ERA
4.37
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
59%
PIRATES
41%
BRAVES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.8
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757
▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.9% more
Atlanta: 7.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.9%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.8
3
PIT Score
3.8
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.7 / 10.8
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 7.9
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
19.6 / 17.9
4.0 / 10.0
Walks
5.1 / 2.8
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52%
82-77
46%
77-90
52%
85-78
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
81-82
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
79-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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