ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
41-51 | Road
1
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
42-50 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 3-8 | 6.08 | 1.38 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Troy Melton | 4-1 | 1.82 | 0.80 | 5.1 | 9 |
3-8
W-L
4-1
6.08
ERA
Ldr 1.82
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 0.80
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
37%
TIGERS
63%
ATHLETICS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Detroit
5.2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
DET @ ATH
11 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
DET @ ATH
8 - 6
Jul 31, 2026
DET @ ATH
13 - 1
Jul 9, 2026
ATH @ DET
1 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
ATH @ DET
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719
OPS
▲
.720
194
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+34.0% more
Detroit: 1.3
vs
Athletics: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+19.7% more
Detroit: 14.6
vs
Athletics: 12.2
Hits (L5)
+9.7% more
Detroit: 8.6
vs
Athletics: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.5% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
1
DET Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.8
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.8
8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 12.2
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.6
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATH
DET
ATH
ML
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
54%
87-73
54%
87-74
ATS
64%
101-58
52%
84-78
57%
91-69
50%
81-80
TTL
46%
69-81-9
54%
84-73-5
46%
69-81-10
42%
66-90-5
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