CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
52-40 | Road
9
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
42-51 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Albert Suarez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 6-5 | 4.75 | 1.43 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Albert Suarez | None-None | 3.54 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
6-5
W-L
None-None
4.75
ERA
Ldr 3.54
1.43
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
63%
ORIOLES
37%
CUBS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
CHC @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 8, 2026
CHC @ BAL
9 - 7
Jul 7, 2026
CHC @ BAL
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
BAL @ CHC
3 - 5
Aug 2, 2025
BAL @ CHC
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.374
OPS
▲
.711
0
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+38.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Baltimore: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+27.9% more
Chicago: 12.8
vs
Baltimore: 9.2
Hits (L5)
+21.6% more
Chicago: 8.7
vs
Baltimore: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.2
9
BAL Score
3.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 8.7
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
4.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 6.7
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 12.8
28.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.2
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHC
BAL
CHC
ML
53%
83-73
58%
93-68
57%
90-69
51%
82-79
ATS
61%
95-60-1
61%
97-63-1
57%
90-68-1
47%
75-85-1
TTL
54%
81-70-5
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-6
46%
72-83-6
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