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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-54  |  Road

16
FINAL
Tue, Jul 7 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

38-54  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Beck Way
STARTING PITCHER

Beck Way

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Beck Way None-None 3.06 -- 0.2 --
Kodai Senga None-None 8.92 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
3.06 Ldr ERA 8.92
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
METS
59%
ROYALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

39.2%

Mets Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
KANSAS CITY
5.3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 9, 2026 KC @ NYM 3 - 7
Jul 8, 2026 KC @ NYM 2 - 6
Jul 7, 2026 KC @ NYM 16 - 12
Jul 13, 2025 NYM @ KC 2 - 3
Jul 12, 2025 NYM @ KC 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.718 ▲
OPS
.705
170
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +47.4% more
New York: 8.9 vs Kansas City: 6.1
Home Runs (Season) +20.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Hits (L5) +13.9% more
Kansas City: 11.7 vs New York: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.2 16
NYM Score 5.3 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 10.1 / 11.7 13.0 / 19.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 6.1 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 18.6 21.0 / 33.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.7 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
KC
NYM
KC
ML
50% 79-80
55% 89-72
48% 76-83
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
58% 93-67
TTL
55% 80-66-13
58% 90-64-7
51% 74-72-13
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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