HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
46-48 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
47-46 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.59 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Andrew Alvarez | None-None | 3.64 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.59 Ldr
ERA
3.64
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
33%
NATIONALS
67%
ASTROS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
36%
Under 0
64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
HOU By 1-2 runs
13.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
8.1%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 8, 2026
HOU @ WSH
2 - 8
Jul 7, 2026
HOU @ WSH
6 - 3
Jul 6, 2026
HOU @ WSH
11 - 12
Jul 30, 2025
WSH @ HOU
1 - 9
Jul 29, 2025
WSH @ HOU
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.582
OPS
▲
.744
4
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5150.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+69.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+21.6% more
Washington: 10.7
vs
Houston: 8.8
Total Bases (L5)
+17.9% more
Washington: 19.9
vs
Houston: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
6
WSH Score
4.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.7 / 8.8
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 2.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.2
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
19.9 / 16.9
18.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.6
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
HOU
WSH
HOU
ML
57%
92-69
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-72
57%
91-70
55%
90-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
45%
70-84-9
42%
65-90-6
45%
69-86-9
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