ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
52-38 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
47-45 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hurston Waldrep
#64 | Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurston Waldrep | None-None | 8.44 | -- | 3.1 | 2 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.44
ERA
Ldr 3.24
--
WHIP
--
3.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
60%
PIRATES
40%
BRAVES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
3.9
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
A
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757
▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Atlanta: 2.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.3% more
Atlanta: 8.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.4% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.0
4
PIT Score
3.9
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.0 / 10.7
14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.1
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.9
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 19.4
23.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.8
7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52%
82-77
46%
77-90
52%
85-78
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
81-82
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
79-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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