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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

41-50  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 7 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

41-50  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Waguespack
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Waguespack

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
J.T. Ginn None-None 3.10 -- 4.0 4
Jacob Waguespack None-None 1.54 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.10 ERA Ldr 1.54
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
47%
📊
TIGERS
53%
ATHLETICS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 82%
Under 0 18%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

47.0%

Tigers Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.9%

ATH By 3-4 runs

12.7%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
ATHLETICS
6.1
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.9
A
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 DET @ ATH 11 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 DET @ ATH 8 - 6
Jul 31, 2026 DET @ ATH 13 - 1
Jul 9, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719
OPS
▲ .720
194 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
Detroit: 1.4 vs Athletics: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +20.5% more
Detroit: 15.3 vs Athletics: 12.7
Runs per Game (Season) +3.5% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Athletics: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Athletics: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 5.8 2
DET Score 6.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.2 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 7.1 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 12.7 13.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.0 / 5.9 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATH
DET
ATH
ML
54% 86-73
59% 95-67
54% 87-73
54% 87-74
ATS
64% 101-58
52% 84-78
57% 91-69
50% 81-80
TTL
46% 69-81-9
54% 84-73-5
46% 69-81-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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