CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
51-40 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
42-50 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trent Thornton
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Thornton | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 5.20 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.63 Ldr
ERA
5.20
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
31%
ORIOLES
69%
CUBS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
12.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
7.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.7
CHICAGO
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
CHC @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 8, 2026
CHC @ BAL
9 - 7
Jul 7, 2026
CHC @ BAL
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
BAL @ CHC
3 - 5
Aug 2, 2025
BAL @ CHC
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.374
OPS
▲
.711
0
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19900.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+396.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+33.7%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+25.1%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
3.7
5
BAL Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 8.0
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.6
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 13.2
6.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHC
BAL
CHC
ML
53%
83-73
58%
93-68
57%
90-69
51%
82-79
ATS
61%
95-60-1
61%
97-63-1
57%
90-68-1
47%
75-85-1
TTL
54%
81-70-5
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-6
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox