MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
58-33 | Road
10
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
47-43 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 7.2 | 4 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 3.14 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.14
--
WHIP
--
7.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
72%
CARDINALS
28%
BREWERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
81%
Under 0
19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
19.1%
STL By 1-2 runs
12.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.9
MILWAUKEE
St. Louis
4.4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.3
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
STL @ MIL
2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
STL @ MIL
4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026
MIL @ STL
8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
MIL @ STL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743
▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+25.4% more
Milwaukee: 3.5
vs
St. Louis: 2.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Milwaukee: 8.6
vs
St. Louis: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.9
10
STL Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.7
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.6
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.3
7.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.5
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53%
85-74
62%
101-61
52%
84-77
52%
84-78
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
94-68
53%
85-76
48%
78-84
TTL
46%
68-81-10
40%
62-92-8
50%
76-75-10
50%
77-77-8
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