ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
45-45 | Road
8
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
44-46 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 3.06 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
| Walker Buehler | None-None | 5.07 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.06 Ldr
ERA
5.07
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
61%
PADRES
39%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.0%
SD By 1-2 runs
15.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.5
ARIZONA
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.3
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.720
OPS
▲
.925
166
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Arizona: 0.6
vs
San Diego: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+198.2% more
San Diego: 5.1
vs
Arizona: 1.7
Home Runs (L5)
+55.0% more
San Diego: 1.1
vs
Arizona: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.5
8
SD Score
3.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.8
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 6.8
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 9.9
8.0 / 23.0
Walks
5.1 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ARI
SD
ARI
ML
51%
85-83
54%
87-74
51%
85-82
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
91-77
57%
91-70
55%
92-75
56%
89-71
TTL
51%
82-80-6
52%
80-73-8
54%
86-74-6
49%
73-77-9
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