Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cardinals MIL @ STL

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

56-33  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Jul 6 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

47-41  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Dustin May
STARTING PITCHER

Dustin May

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dustin May None-None 4.55 -- 4.2 7
Gordon Graceffo None-None 3.19 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.55 ERA Ldr 3.19
-- WHIP --
4.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
56%
📊
CARDINALS
44%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 76%
Under 0 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

42.1%

Cardinals Cover

57.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

MIL By 3-4 runs

15.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.8%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.9
MILWAUKEE
5.1
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +22.3% more
Milwaukee: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +5.2%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
On-Base Pct (Season) +2.8%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs St. Louis: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.9 4
STL Score 5.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.3 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 15.0 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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