NEW YORK
METSNYM
38-53 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
52-37 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Owen Murphy
#73 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.85 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Owen Murphy | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.85 Ldr
ERA
9.00
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
48%
BRAVES
52%
METS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.0%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5.4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+24.6% more
Atlanta: 2.1
vs
New York: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
New York: 4.3
Total Bases (L5)
+10.8% more
Atlanta: 17.6
vs
New York: 15.9
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.2
7
ATL Score
5.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 9.6
13.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 8.9
13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 15.9
23.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
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