Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Nationals HOU @ WSH

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

45-48  |  Road

11
FINAL
Mon, Jul 6 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

47-45  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Mike Burrows
STARTING PITCHER

Mike Burrows

#50 | SP
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mike Burrows None-None 5.99 -- 4.1 3
Clayton Beeter None-None 3.00 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.99 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
27%
📊
NATIONALS
73%
ASTROS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Washington)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

25.0%

Nationals Cover

75.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

11.5%

HOU By 3-4 runs

6.1%

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.7
HOUSTON
5.4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nationals Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Nationals Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.7
B
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
B
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 8, 2026 HOU @ WSH 2 - 8
Jul 7, 2026 HOU @ WSH 6 - 3
Jul 6, 2026 HOU @ WSH 11 - 12
Jul 30, 2025 WSH @ HOU 1 - 9
Jul 29, 2025 WSH @ HOU 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.582
OPS
▲ .744
4
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5150.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +69.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5) +32.6% more
Washington: 9.6 vs Houston: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +29.3% more
Washington: 17.9 vs Houston: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 2.7 11
WSH Score 5.4 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.2 13.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.8 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.2 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.9 / 13.8 24.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
HOU
WSH
HOU
ML
57% 92-69
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-72
57% 91-70
55% 90-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
45% 70-84-9
42% 65-90-6
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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