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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

50-41  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Jul 6 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

37-54  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Backhus
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Backhus

#19 | Relief Pitcher
@
Beck Way
STARTING PITCHER

Beck Way

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Backhus None-None 5.87 -- 1.0 1
Beck Way None-None 3.18 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.87 ERA Ldr 3.18
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
74%
📊
ROYALS
26%
PHILLIES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

74.2%

Royals Cover

25.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.0%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.3%

KC By 1-2 runs

11.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

6.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.9
PHILADELPHIA
4.3
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
7
PHILADELPHIA
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Phillies Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Phillies Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+2.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
B
Sim Royals (-2.5) Win
Proj Runs: +2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
A
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 6, 2026 PHI @ KC 1 - 15
Jul 5, 2026 PHI @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PHI @ KC 6 - 1
Sep 14, 2025 KC @ PHI 10 - 3
Sep 13, 2025 KC @ PHI 6 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724 ▲
OPS
.718
3
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +41.9% more
Philadelphia: 11.4 vs Kansas City: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +29.2% more
Philadelphia: 14.0 vs Kansas City: 9.9
Hits (L5) +18.8% more
Philadelphia: 8.0 vs Kansas City: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.9 1
KC Score 4.3 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.0 22.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.3 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 11.4 5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 14.0 36.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.7 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PHI
KC
PHI
ML
55% 89-72
59% 97-67
56% 90-70
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 91-70
65% 107-57
58% 93-67
51% 83-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
57% 88-67-9
54% 83-70-7
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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