Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Angels BOS @ LAA

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

36-46  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 9:30 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

36-49  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mitch Farris
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Farris

#70 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 2.36 -- 1.0 2
Mitch Farris None-None 3.62 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.36 Ldr ERA 3.62
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
📊
ANGELS
49%
RED SOX --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

49.0%

Angels Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.9%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
BOSTON
4.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.409
OPS
▲ .679
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +41.0% more
Boston: 14.1 vs Los Angeles: 8.3
Home Runs (L5) +35.1% more
Boston: 1.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Hits (L5) +29.2% more
Boston: 8.1 vs Los Angeles: 5.7
Home Runs (Season) +7600.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.3 7
LAA Score 4.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 8.1 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.8 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 8.3 / 14.1 14.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.4 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BOS
LAA
BOS
ML
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 72-83-5
52% 82-75-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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