Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Dodgers SD @ LAD

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-39  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 7:20 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

54-30  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Hurt
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Hurt

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 0.98 -- 1.0 1
Kyle Hurt None-None 4.55 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.98 Ldr ERA 4.55
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
37%
📊
DODGERS
63%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

34.5%

Dodgers Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

14.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

8.9%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN DIEGO
5.1
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +75.3% more
Los Angeles: 11.3 vs San Diego: 6.4
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.3 vs San Diego: 7.7
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
San Diego: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.5 5
LAD Score 5.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 7.7 4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 6.4 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 13.0 4.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.6 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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