Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Mariners TOR @ SEA

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

39-45  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 5:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

42-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Fluharty None-None 4.72 -- 1.0 2
Andres Munoz None-None 4.45 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.72 ERA Ldr 4.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
62%
📊
MARINERS
38%
BLUE JAYS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 78%
Under 0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

Mariners Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.1
TORONTO
4.7
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 SEA @ TOR 0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026 SEA @ TOR 3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026 SEA @ TOR 1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026 TOR @ SEA 0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.692
OPS
▲ .693
152
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +52.1% more
Toronto: 2.9 vs Seattle: 1.4
Strikeouts (L5) +25.3% more
Toronto: 10.0 vs Seattle: 7.5
Batting Avg (Season) +1.4%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Seattle: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.2%
Toronto: 38.1% vs Seattle: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 6.1 0
SEA Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 5.3 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 10.0 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 7.9 10.0 / 4.0
Walks 1.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TOR
SEA
TOR
ML
50% 81-81
46% 74-87
52% 85-77
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 98-64
56% 90-71
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
TTL
56% 85-67-10
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-71-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
yardbarker 0 minutes ago
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 3 hours, 46 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 4 hours, 3 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 4 hours, 4 minutes ago