Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Athletics MIA @ ATH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

44-40  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 4:30 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

40-44  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Pete Fairbanks
STARTING PITCHER

Pete Fairbanks

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pete Fairbanks None-None 7.27 -- 1.0 1
Elvis Alvarado None-None 5.55 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
7.27 ERA Ldr 5.55
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
📊
ATHLETICS
63%
MARLINS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Athletics)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

34.5%

Athletics Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

MIA By 1-2 runs

14.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

8.9%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
MIAMI
6.5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o10.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.4
B
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 MIA @ ATH 9 - 8
Jul 4, 2026 MIA @ ATH 7 - 2
Jul 3, 2026 MIA @ ATH 12 - 5
May 4, 2025 ATH @ MIA 3 - 2
May 3, 2025 ATH @ MIA 6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.727 ▲
OPS
.719
168
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +98.9% more
Athletics: 5.4 vs Miami: 2.7
Strikeouts (L5) +15.7% more
Athletics: 8.7 vs Miami: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +15.5% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.2%
Athletics: 40.2% vs Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.9 9
ATH Score 6.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 11.1 7.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 2.5 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.5 4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 21.1 12.0 / 33.0
Walks 5.4 / 2.7 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
MIA
ATH
MIA
ML
59% 95-67
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-71
50% 81-80
54% 86-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
56% 88-69-5
42% 66-90-5
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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