Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Rockies SF @ COL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

35-48  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Jul 5 • 4:00 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

33-51  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jordan Romano
STARTING PITCHER

Jordan Romano

#68 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Smith None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Jordan Romano None-None 8.10 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 Ldr ERA 8.10
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
35%
📊
ROCKIES
65%
GIANTS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 34%
Under 0 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Colorado)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

34.5%

Rockies Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SF By 1-2 runs

14.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.9%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

COL By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
SAN FRANCISCO
6.4
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockies Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u12.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.2
A
Sim u12.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.706
OPS
▲ .739
178
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.6% more
Colorado: 1.8 vs San Francisco: 1.2
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Colorado: 0.6 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +12.3% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +11.4% more
Colorado: 19.1 vs San Francisco: 17.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.8 6
COL Score 6.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.7 / 10.1 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 6.6 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 17.2 18.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.4 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SF
COL
SF
ML
60% 97-64
49% 79-81
55% 88-73
53% 85-75
ATS
60% 97-64
62% 100-60
52% 83-78
52% 83-77
TTL
60% 93-62-6
55% 82-68-10
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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