TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
48-33 | Road
0
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
42-44 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 5.2 | 9 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.60 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.82
ERA
Ldr 0.60
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
61%
ASTROS
39%
RAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
29%
Under 0
71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.8%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Houston
2.6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
A
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.728
▲
OPS
.582
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+22.5% more
Tampa Bay: 2.2
vs
Houston: 1.7
OPS (Season)
+14.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
0
HOU Score
2.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.8
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 2.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 5.9
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 16.5
12.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.8 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TB
HOU
TB
ML
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-66
55%
90-74
55%
90-73
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
73-81-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-10
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